The year 2013 has put the foundation of next bull market in India, with most economist believe that worst is over. First half of the year is going to see the major bull run of the market. IT and Pharma will be the strongest sectors. Dark horse will be Oil and Metal sectors. Power and Infrastructure will be the weakest sectors. Banking will be weak for next two quarters, so trade Bank Nifty long only if, it is above 11000, for year target of 16000. In Nifty trade long on every fall with stop loss of 5970 for year target of 7150.
In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable
WISHING YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Saturday, December 28, 2013
DLF bottom out
It is forming 5 months bottoming Ascending Triangle and 8 weeks Head & Shoulders bottom. This week it as close above neckline of 167. Trade long with stop loss of 163 for target of 184 and 204.
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Banking is Bearish
Bank Nifty and Banking stocks is forming bearish rising wedge pattern. Sell on rise with stop loss of weekly high for target of 50% from September low to recent high.
Thursday, October 3, 2013
SUGAR in a sweet spot
Sugar has confirmed a major bottom in international dollar chart. In India both Renuka and Balrampur has confirmed head and Shoulders bottom. Investors can accumulate Renuka with stop loss of 15-17 for target of 38, 52 and 80. Balrampur with stop loss of 35-40 for target of 70, 95 and 150.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Charts to watch
I am becoming interested in the metal markets. The Copper, Silver and Gold charts are displaying possible Head & Shoulders bottom patterns. Although the left shoulder is awkward. However, a decisive close below this week's lows would alter the above analysis and could lead to a retest of the June lows. But my guess is the right shoulder which will be subject to considerable change before the next trend is declared. I would buy an upside breakout but would not short below the september lows.
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Nifty Gaps
1) According to the gap theory Exhaustion gap is the last leg of a trend. Which is negative.
2) Nifty as penetrated the upper channel line at 5970 of descending flag or wedge. Which is positive for target of 6730.
3) It has completed 'Head' of a possible 3 months Head and Shoulders Pattern. Which has neckline at 5993. Which is negative.
Conclusion
Hold your long position till Nifty close decisively below 5970. Below 5970 one can short Nifty with the stop loss of recent high, because it start forming right shoulder which has target of 5550-5450.
2) Nifty as penetrated the upper channel line at 5970 of descending flag or wedge. Which is positive for target of 6730.
3) It has completed 'Head' of a possible 3 months Head and Shoulders Pattern. Which has neckline at 5993. Which is negative.
Conclusion
Hold your long position till Nifty close decisively below 5970. Below 5970 one can short Nifty with the stop loss of recent high, because it start forming right shoulder which has target of 5550-5450.
Friday, September 6, 2013
Multibagger Idea!
To interpret past patterns on the assumption that 'history tends to repeat itself' is the base of analysis of financial markets and economic factors. Metals companies like Tata Steel, Sesa Goa and Jindal Steel & Power are some of the Index stocks which are showing the same repeated chart patterns like sharp vertical rise, small top formation, sharp vertical down fall and again sharp vertical rise in parabolic trend. Prices of these stocks has reach below 2003 levels. Fundamentals of India as changed in last 10 years. So on both ground these stocks are the best multibagger investment bet for 1-2 years horizon. One can buy with the stop loss of recent lows, for the target of life highs.
Monday, August 26, 2013
Cairn India
It is forming multi years top with Head & Shoulders pattern. Now it is making right shoulder in weekly chart. In daily chart it has given breakout by closing above 314 of 15 weeks Head & Shoulders - Bottom Pattern and 5 month Ascending triangle Pattern. Trade long with stop loss of 310 for target of 349-359.
Monday, August 19, 2013
ACC
It has been making Top with 14 months Head and Shoulders - Top pattern. And breakdown of 4 years trend line support. Neckline is at 1100. Pattern will be confirmed if it gives weekly closing below 1100. Target 850.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
Tata Motors
Saturday, July 27, 2013
Thursday, July 25, 2013
USD INR
It has Breakout of 4 weeks Head and Shoulders - Top Pattern by closing below neckline at 58.96. Trade Short with stop loss of 59.35 for target of 58.05 and 57.55.
L & T Bearish
It has Breakout of 14 weeks Head and Shoulders - Top Pattern, which has neckline at 900 and support line at 875. Trade Short on rise with stop loss of 901 for pattern target of 754.
Monday, July 22, 2013
Nifty
It is in the formation of right shoulder of 15 weeks Head and Shoulders - Top pattern. And 3 weeks Ascending Wedge, which is bearish pattern. Important level to watch 5970, 6070 and 6120. If Nifty close below 6000-5970 than can go to 5850, 5750 and 5550. H&S neckline is at 5548, below it 5150 is possible.
Bank Nifty
It has close below 4 weeks Flag pattern. Trade short on rise with stoploss 11200-11300 for target of 10500 and 9900.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Nickel
It is on the verge of breakout of 10 weeks Head and Shoulders - Top Pattern. Neckline is at 810. If it close below 810 on friday, one can trade short with stoploss of 828 for target of 765 and 710.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
L & T
It has penetrated the neck line of 4 weeks Head and Shoulders -bottom pattern at 971 in intraday today, but has close below it. Trade long if it close above 971 with stop loss of 952 for target of 1020-1031.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Reliance
It is in the formation of 7 months Head and Shoulders Top pattern. But right shoulder is on the verge of breakout of 4 weeks Head and Shoulders Bottom and 4 weeks fail descending Triangle. Which is bullish sign. Trade long above 832 for target of 871.
USDINR Final Run
It is in the final run of the third Elliott wave (Intermediate term) in a weekly chart. And at the top end of 6 years channel lines. Weekly closing below 59.90 will confirm it's top. Fourth wave will be downward trending. Rupee may consolidate between 60 to 57 in coming months.
In Elliott wave daily chart (short term) also it is in third wave. And at the top end of 11 months channel lines. Trade short on rise with stop loss of high (60.76 Spot) for target of 59.80, 59.10 and 58.10 in coming weeks.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6KLCbMDSoPeMiq9YyZDONSsQ-JxwA7muSnKKZcRPJxLHqPhIFvWMEdw0JckYiYw4uDqOQUgnQ-5nv4hD0y616gkHUNKZkRlDMnv5I-Gv6eVO2JCKUb_dSNLUuHjoM1PcLHoAv1MZTvPs/s640/USDINR_D27062013.png)
In Elliott wave daily chart (short term) also it is in third wave. And at the top end of 11 months channel lines. Trade short on rise with stop loss of high (60.76 Spot) for target of 59.80, 59.10 and 58.10 in coming weeks.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6KLCbMDSoPeMiq9YyZDONSsQ-JxwA7muSnKKZcRPJxLHqPhIFvWMEdw0JckYiYw4uDqOQUgnQ-5nv4hD0y616gkHUNKZkRlDMnv5I-Gv6eVO2JCKUb_dSNLUuHjoM1PcLHoAv1MZTvPs/s640/USDINR_D27062013.png)
Monday, June 24, 2013
Crude Oil Bull Trap
The monthly and weekly Crude Oil charts have been forming a 9-month triangle within a 3+ year triangle.
Of great significance, in my opinion, was the upward price breakout in last week of a smaller symmetrical triangle. This upward breakout has now proven to be a classic bull trap.
Trade Short on rise near upper boundary of smaller triangle at 96.7 with stop loss of 100.3 for target of the lower boundary of the smaller triangle at 86.70 and the lower boundary of the bigger triangle at 80.71.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Double Top in Nifty & BankNifty
It may sound too bearish but I am showing the possibilities.The text book definition of Double Top is : Two well defined peaks, narrow, pointed, and separated in time but near the same price. Breakout is downward. Nifty and BankNifty is in similar setup. Long term investment is advisable if Nifty close above 6000 in weekly chart. Double top will be confirm if Nifty close below 4625 and BankNifty close below 7969. Months of May, Jun, July, Aug and Sep are always crucial and fundamentals are supportive.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeeR6jFFLPoiZPU0N0pjxjA8cxGWjwEiB7GjzmM9JuJBGGGNb2pIX8EUJfl-1GJCCxbBMsLQUT6O-4Dz0Dj1NQ4SXHSZ6KbqcmFWI7VWCQsATsN_uHaEOhOOSXj8Xcvyds_6_xKjizANI/s640/NIFTY_M23062013.png)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeeR6jFFLPoiZPU0N0pjxjA8cxGWjwEiB7GjzmM9JuJBGGGNb2pIX8EUJfl-1GJCCxbBMsLQUT6O-4Dz0Dj1NQ4SXHSZ6KbqcmFWI7VWCQsATsN_uHaEOhOOSXj8Xcvyds_6_xKjizANI/s640/NIFTY_M23062013.png)
SBIN
It has broken out of 7 months Head & Shoulders Top pattern 4 weeks ago by closing below neck line at 2057, but SBIN is not able to break trendline resistance, now at 1975. If it close below 1975 than go short on rise with stop loss of 2085 for pattern target of 1645. There is resistance at 12 months rectangle lower channel line at 1837, if broken by closing below it in weekly chart, than target will be 1334.
PNB
It has breakout of 8 months Head & Shoulders, Top pattern by closing below neck line at 711 in weekly chart. Trade short on every rise with stop loss of 750 for target of 575.
Saturday, June 1, 2013
Cnx Nifty
It is making classic textbook Head and Shoulders Revers Chart Pattern at the top. Neck line breakout is at 5970. Trade short below 5945 with stop loss of 5971 for target of 5835.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Tata Motors
It has given decisive breakout above 309, of 3 months Bottom- Head and Shoulders patterns. Tata Motors has long history of achieving target of head and shoulders patterns. Trade Long with stop loss of 304 - 309 for target of 330 - 357.
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
USD INR
It has decisively breakout of 7 months Symmetrical Triangle Pattern below 54.14. And also below H&S failure pattern. One can trade short below 53.78 with stop loss of 54.44 for target of 53.34 and 52.
Monday, April 29, 2013
Treasury yields fall
In a new report, the analysts at Goldman Sachs wrestle with the idea that the U.S. might be in a bond bubble.
For some context, they include this great annotated chart tracking the fluctuations of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note since 1790.
Saturday, April 27, 2013
Copper
It has resistance at multi months trend line level 390. Which was respected yesterday. One can trade short Copper with stop loss of 397 for target of 344. Which is also support line of multi months channel.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
The Dow/Gold Ratio
After a 12-year decline against gold, the stock market could become king once more
If the ratio returns to 20, the Dow could go to 18,000 and gold could drop to $900
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Sell In May And Go Away
Still As True As Ever
The S&P 500 continues to make most of its gains between November and April and underperform between May and October. Here is an updated look at this phenomenon and how you can put it to use.
From November 1979 until November 2012, the S&P 500 climbed from 101.82 to 1,412.16, a gain of 1,287.23% (Figure 1). In net points, the index gained 1,380.8 during the November–April period but lost 70.4 during the May–October period of this 22-year span.
FIGURE 1: THE RAW DATA (OCTOBER 1979–OCTOBER 2012). Here you see the S&P 500 index values and the percentage change from November–April versus May–October. From November 1979–November 2012, the S&P 500 climbed from 101.82 to 1412.16. That is a gain of 1,287.23%. Most of this gain occurred in the November–April half of each year.
LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS
Using nominal point differences can be misleading: The most recent years are given more weight since the number of points gained or lost is greater for every percentage point change in the S&P 500. Yet, even by using percentage differences, there are dramatic differences between the November–April and May–October spans.
Using nominal point differences can be misleading: The most recent years are given more weight since the number of points gained or lost is greater for every percentage point change in the S&P 500. Yet, even by using percentage differences, there are dramatic differences between the November–April and May–October spans.
The average November–April span saw a 7.3% change in the S&P 500 (15.1% annualized) versus 1.9% (3.9% annualized) from May–October; the November–April period outperformed the May–October period by 5.4% on average. If you invested $10,000 on November 1, 1979 and moved to cash on April 30 each year, it would have grown to $89,361, ignoring dividends, money earned in cash, commissions, and slippage. By contrast, the same $10,000 invested on May 1, 1980 and moved to cash every Halloween would have grown to $15,520. The November–April investor would have gained 475.8% more.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Flags flying
Monday, April 15, 2013
Monday, April 8, 2013
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